The war in the Middle East is creating a new problem far beyond the battlefield. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, the focus is increasingly shifting toward another narrow waterway: the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The southern entrance to the Red Sea connects the region with the Gulf of Aden and is one of the world’s key routes for commercial shipping between Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s western coast have brought the group closer to strategically important positions around the strait, raising fresh concerns about the security of oil shipments and international trade.
The situation is particularly important for Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has relied on its East-West oil pipeline to move crude across the country from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, providing an alternative route when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz becomes difficult.
But that alternative still depends on secure access to the Red Sea.
Recent fighting has therefore created a difficult chain of risks. A disruption in Hormuz can push producers toward alternative routes, while instability around Bab al-Mandab can make those alternatives more expensive and vulnerable.
Yemen’s War Has Entered a New Strategic Phase
Yemen’s conflict is not a simple two-sided war. Several armed and political groups operate across the country, with shifting alliances and competing interests.
The Houthis control large parts of northern and western Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa. Their main military opponents include forces associated with Yemen’s internationally recognized government, along with several southern groups backed by regional powers.
There are also other armed organizations operating in parts of the country, including al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
This fragmented political and military landscape has made Yemen particularly difficult to stabilize.
The Houthis have maintained control over significant territory since taking Sanaa in 2014. Their relationship with Iran has also become an important part of the regional security picture. Iran has provided support, weapons and military assistance to the group, although analysts have long debated how much operational independence the Houthis retain.
The latest escalation has brought the relationship under greater scrutiny because Houthi actions are increasingly taking place within the wider confrontation involving Iran, Israel and the United States.
That does not mean every Houthi decision is directed by Tehran. But the strategic overlap between their interests has become more significant as the regional conflict has expanded.
Houthi Forces Move Toward the Bab al-Mandab
The biggest change in recent weeks has been the speed of the Houthi advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast.
The offensive has included the capture of Mocha, a historic port north of the Bab al-Mandab, followed by advances toward the strait and nearby Red Sea islands.
The Houthis also reached Perim, also known as Mayyun Island, a strategically positioned island near the entrance to the Bab al-Mandab. Reuters reported that Houthi forces reached the island on September 11.
The United Nations has separately warned that fighting along Yemen’s western coast has intensified and that Houthi forces have advanced toward the Bab al-Mandab while reportedly capturing several islands in the southern Red Sea.
The geographical importance of these positions is difficult to overstate.
The Bab al-Mandab is narrow compared with the enormous sea routes surrounding it. Ships travelling between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean have limited room to maneuver, making surveillance, missile attacks, drones and other forms of asymmetric warfare particularly concerning.
The Houthi advance does not automatically mean that international shipping has been stopped. The UN said commercial shipping flows through the Red Sea appeared unaffected at the time of its September 15 briefing.
However, the military geography has changed, and that alone can increase the risk and cost of operating in the area.
Why Perim Island Matters to Shipping
Perim’s importance comes from its location.
The island sits near the Bab al-Mandab and effectively narrows the maritime environment around the southern Red Sea. A military force operating from nearby positions can potentially reduce the warning time available to ships approaching a threat.
That matters because modern maritime security depends heavily on early detection.
A vessel facing a missile, drone or explosive boat needs time to identify the threat, determine its direction and respond. The closer a launch position is to a shipping lane, the less time may be available.
The Houthis have previously demonstrated their ability to use relatively inexpensive weapons against much more expensive commercial and military targets.
Their arsenal has included anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, drones and explosive-laden boats. The group has also demonstrated the ability to launch long-range missiles toward targets in Saudi Arabia and Israel.
This combination creates a complicated security problem.
A commercial ship does not necessarily need to be hit for the conflict to have an economic impact. A credible threat can be enough to increase insurance costs, force vessels to change routes or encourage shipping companies to delay voyages.
The Strait of Hormuz Is Already Under Severe Pressure
The Bab al-Mandab crisis cannot be separated from the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transit chokepoints. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider Indian Ocean.
Recent fighting involving Iran has caused a sharp decline in maritime traffic through the strait.
Reuters reported that only 17 commodity vessels passed through Hormuz over one weekend in September, compared with 37 the previous week and a pre-war average of about 125 vessels per day.
That does not mean the waterway has been completely closed to every ship. Some oil exports have continued, including vessels using unusual operating patterns and other emergency measures.
But the reduction in traffic demonstrates how quickly military risk can affect global energy logistics.
The strait is also narrower for practical shipping purposes than its total geographical width suggests. Established shipping lanes occupy only a limited part of the waterway, increasing the significance of any military threat.
Saudi Arabia Has an Alternative Route — But It Is Not Risk-Free
Saudi Arabia has one of the most important alternatives to Hormuz: its East-West pipeline.
The system moves crude oil from processing facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia across the country toward Yanbu on the Red Sea.
The pipeline has a nameplate capacity of around 5 million barrels per day under its standard configuration, with the system capable of higher temporary capacity under certain conditions.
The route is strategically important because it allows Saudi crude to reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
But reaching Yanbu is only part of the journey.
Once oil is loaded onto tankers at the Red Sea, those vessels still have to pass through the Bab al-Mandab if they are travelling toward Asian markets.
That creates a geographical dilemma.
A pipeline can bypass one chokepoint, but it cannot eliminate the need for safe maritime access farther down the route.
Damage to Saudi Energy Infrastructure Adds Another Risk
The vulnerability of the alternative route became clear after a September 11 drone attack damaged Saudi oil infrastructure.
Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia subsequently restarted its East-West pipeline at a reduced rate after the attack, while repairs were expected to take several weeks before the system could return to full capacity. The pipeline normally carries around 4 million barrels per day under the affected operating conditions, equivalent to roughly 4% of global oil supply.
The attack was attributed to Iraqi militia groups rather than the Houthis, making it important not to treat every strike on Saudi infrastructure as part of the same operation.
Nevertheless, the incident demonstrated the wider vulnerability of energy infrastructure during the current regional conflict.
Oil pipelines, pumping stations, storage facilities, ports and refineries can all become strategic targets.
For global markets, the problem is not only how much oil exists underground. It is also whether that oil can safely reach buyers.
Yanbu Has Become Increasingly Important
Yanbu is now at the centre of Saudi Arabia’s effort to maintain exports while Hormuz remains disrupted.
The Red Sea port provides Saudi Arabia with an alternative outlet, but its strategic value also makes it more exposed to threats.
Reuters reported that crude loadings from Yanbu had been disrupted earlier in September before Saudi Arabia began restoring some export activity.
That means the security of the port is becoming increasingly important for both Saudi Arabia and global oil markets.
If production continues but export infrastructure becomes unavailable, the effect can still be significant.
Storage capacity fills. Refineries and production facilities may have to adjust operations. Shipping schedules become more complicated. Buyers may have to look for alternative supplies.
All of those factors can increase costs.
Houthi Weapons Create an Asymmetric Threat
The Houthis do not need a conventional navy comparable to the major maritime powers to threaten commercial shipping.
Their advantage comes from asymmetric warfare.
Anti-ship missiles can be launched from land. Drones can be relatively inexpensive compared with the ships they threaten. Explosive boats can operate in crowded waters where identifying a small craft may be difficult.
The group has also developed increasingly sophisticated missile capabilities.
Some of its longer-range ballistic missiles can threaten targets deep inside the region. The precise capabilities and operational readiness of individual systems are difficult to independently verify, but previous launches have demonstrated that the threat is not limited to Yemen’s immediate neighbours.
This creates a difficult calculation for shipping companies.
A tanker worth hundreds of millions of dollars may be exposed to a weapon that costs only a fraction of that amount.
The imbalance is one of the defining features of modern maritime security.
Global Trade Could Feel the Impact
The Bab al-Mandab is important not only because of oil.
The route connects the Red Sea with the Suez Canal, making it part of one of the most important commercial corridors between Asia and Europe.
Container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers and other commercial vessels have historically used this route to avoid the much longer journey around Africa.
When the route becomes dangerous, companies can choose to reroute ships around the Cape of Good Hope.
But that adds thousands of kilometres to many journeys.
More distance means more fuel, more crew time, higher insurance costs and longer delivery schedules.
The consequences can eventually reach consumers through higher transport costs and more expensive goods.
The European Union is already concerned about the security situation. The EU’s maritime mission in the Red Sea was established to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks, and European officials have recently called for additional naval resources as the threat grows.
Oil Prices Could Remain Sensitive to Every New Development
Oil markets respond not only to actual supply losses but also to expectations.
If traders believe that another major shipping route could become inaccessible, prices can rise before any large physical shortage appears.
That is why developments in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Red Sea can influence markets far beyond the Middle East.
Recent oil-price movements have reflected a mixture of military risk, diplomatic developments and changes in Saudi export flows.
The situation is therefore more complicated than a simple question of whether the Houthis can physically close the Bab al-Mandab.
Even partial disruption can have economic consequences.
Higher insurance premiums, longer shipping routes and increased security requirements can all raise the cost of moving energy and goods.
Yemen’s Humanitarian Crisis Is Growing at the Same Time
Behind the strategic calculations is a much larger humanitarian problem.
The renewed fighting along Yemen’s western coast has forced thousands of families to leave their homes.
The United Nations said around 18,000 households had been displaced since the beginning of September, with people moving toward areas including Taiz, Aden, Lahj and Abyan. Humanitarian organizations have also warned that access and funding constraints are making the response more difficult.
The UN later reported that at least 125,000 people had been displaced since the start of the month as fighting intensified.
This means the security crisis around the Bab al-Mandab is developing alongside an already severe humanitarian emergency.
Military control of territory may dominate international headlines, but for civilians living near the front lines, the consequences are immediate: displacement, disrupted services, damaged infrastructure and uncertainty about where it is safe to go.
Can the Houthis Control the World’s Trade Routes?
The idea that the Houthis could completely control global shipping would be too broad.
The group does not control the entire Red Sea, and international naval forces remain present in the region. Commercial traffic has also continued despite the recent escalation.
But the more realistic concern is whether the Houthis can create enough risk to make shipping significantly more expensive and difficult.
That possibility is already being taken seriously.
The recent capture of positions near Bab al-Mandab has increased the group’s strategic leverage. Combined with its missile and drone capabilities, the new geography gives it additional opportunities to threaten vessels and influence the security calculations of governments and shipping companies.
In that sense, the issue is not simply about physically closing a strait.
It is about how much uncertainty one armed group can create around a waterway that supports global trade.
The Risk Extends Beyond Yemen
The latest developments show how interconnected the region’s conflicts have become.
Iran’s confrontation with Israel and the United States has affected the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting pressure on Gulf energy exports has increased the importance of alternative routes through Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, Houthi advances in Yemen have increased pressure around the Bab al-Mandab.
The two chokepoints are geographically separate, but economically connected.
If both face sustained disruption, energy companies and shipping operators have fewer safe and efficient alternatives.
That is why the current situation deserves attention beyond the Middle East.
The consequences could appear in oil prices, shipping costs, insurance premiums, supply chains and ultimately consumer prices.
A Strategic Battle With Global Economic Consequences
The battle for Yemen’s Red Sea coast is therefore about much more than territory.
For the Houthis, control of strategic positions provides military and political leverage. For Saudi Arabia, secure access to Yanbu is essential to maintaining an alternative oil export route. For international shipping companies, the priority is safe passage. For global markets, the central concern is whether energy and goods can continue moving without major disruption.
The Bab al-Mandab may be narrow on the map, but its economic importance is enormous.
The coming weeks will show whether the recent Houthi advances translate into sustained control, whether opposing forces can launch an effective counter-offensive, and whether international naval and diplomatic efforts can keep commercial shipping moving.
For now, the risk is clear: the Middle East’s expanding conflict is placing pressure on more than one maritime chokepoint at the same time.
And when the world’s major energy and trade routes come under pressure, the effects rarely remain confined to the region where the fighting began.